QLD · WA · SA · VIC · NSW · FED · 2028–2031

The out years

Six more elections fall inside our window to mid-2031, worth potentially $111.8 million to One Nation all up. Queensland and Western Australia vote for the first time since One Nation’s surge; South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales return to the polls; the 2031 federal election closes the series. Victoria’s and New South Wales’s second-election money is already counted in those states’ running totals — the genuinely new money is the $82.7 million from Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and the federal poll.

Scroll for the per-state breakdown.

§ 1 — The out years

$111.8m across six more polls.

Six more elections take us through to the end of the period — Queensland and Western Australia for the first time since One Nation’s surge, a return to the polls for South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales, and then the 2031 federal election to close the series.

A lot can and will happen in the interim, but for the purposes of this analysis we’ll use the most recent state polling available at our 4 June 2026 publishing cutoff, falling back to Newspoll where data is not available. If these polls were to translate into votes — 31% for Queensland, WA, SA and the federal poll, 25% for Victoria and 22% for NSW — these six contests would put $111,848,959 One Nation’s way: most of it paid before the recurring count closes at the end of March 2031, the final lumps — New South Wales’s campaign payment and the federal election’s per-vote entitlement — landing in the weeks and months after each poll. (Victoria’s and New South Wales’s second-election money already sits inside those states’ running totals on the overview — this page re-tells it, it doesn’t add to it.)

§ 2 — Queensland 2028

Queensland 2028: per-vote funding.

Queensland votes on 28 October 2028. If the current Newspoll result applied at 31% through to polling day, One Nation projects about 1,046,129 first-preference votes across the 93 districts — worth $7,707,967 in per-vote election funding — the current $6.84 rate (FY2025-26) indexed forward to a projected $7.37 a vote at the 2028 election.

The same concentration that wins it about 42 of 93 seats also qualifies it for the ongoing Policy Development Payment — $6,535,487 of it within the period. The ECQ assesses the per-vote claim after the poll, so the bulk lands in FY2029-30: $14,243,454 in all.

§ 3 — Western Australia 2029

Western Australia 2029: reimbursement on votes.

WA votes on 10 March 2029. On that same Newspoll reading, the state would fund electoral spending based on combined Legislative Assembly + Council votes — about 1,040,192 of them at 31% — worth $5,067,708 at the indexed opt-in rate of $4.87 a vote.

WA has no ongoing, administrative or policy-development funding, so that single reimbursement is the whole figure — and it lands in FY2029-30. The seat projection (about 30 Assembly + 12 Council) does not change it: the money tracks votes, not seats.

§ 4 — South Australia 2030

South Australia 2030: advance, reconciliation and admin.

South Australia votes again in March 2030. If the current Newspoll — Jun 2026 applies, then on that same national figure once more the state will pay One Nation 60% + 20% of the notional entitlement before the poll ($2,593,655), and reconcile to the actual result a few months later (projected at $1,831,062). Then the administrative funding begins — its first two half-years falling by January 2031.

The total comes to $6,064,717 from South Australia within the period. Under the projections, One Nation’s 3 Legislative Council seats won in 2026 carry over on their eight-year terms, leaving the party with a 20-member party room after 2030.

§ 5 — Victoria 2030

Victoria 2030: the same party room, paid again.

Victoria votes again on 30 November 2030 — its second election in the series. Its Legislative Council is not staggered: all 40 seats are up every four years, so nothing carries over. If Freshwater Strategy’s latest poll (Jun 2026) were seen on polling day in 2030, One Nation would repeat its projected 2026 results — about 12 of 40 Council seats and 30 of 88 in the Assembly.

The advance toward the 2030 election ($10,986,075), the new term’s administrative funding and the first tranche of the advance toward the 2034 election all land inside the window — $17,586,751 of the 2030 cycle in all.

§ 6 — New South Wales 2031

NSW 2031: its Council numbers double.

New South Wales votes again on 22 March 2031. Its Legislative Council runs eight-year terms, with only 21 of 42 seats up each election. So the 5 Council seats One Nation wins in 2027 are not on the ballot in 2031 — they sit until 2035. Win the same 5 again from the 21 up — should the latest NSW state poll (Resolve Strategic — May 2026, 22%) recur — and its Council numbers roughly double to 10 of 42.

With the lower house added, One Nation projects a 22-member party room after 2031. The 2031 per-vote funding ($11,591,449) is paid just after the window closes; the doubled Council contingent’s administration funding runs on to 2035, beyond the period.

§ 7 — Federal 2031

Federal 2031: the biggest payment in the series.

The eleventh and final election of the period is federal. With the 2025 and 2028 parliaments each running a full term it is due by May 2031 — and is reasonably likely earlier.

Projected at One Nation’s latest federal polling (31%, Newspoll — Jun 2026), that election would pay a per-vote public-funding entitlement of $57,294,880, at the $5 rate indexed to 2031 — the single largest payment in the series, counted with its election and paid in the months after polling day. The 2031–34 term’s administrative funding falls beyond the period.

It takes the whole series to $219.0 million across eleven elections.

Methodology

Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia are pinned to One Nation’s current national primary — 31% (Newspoll — Jun 2026, the most recent federal poll) — since no dedicated state poll breaks One Nation out; the 2031 federal projection carries that same poll. Victoria and New South Wales instead carry their own most recent state poll (Freshwater Strategy — Jun 2026; Resolve Strategic — May 2026). Seats come from the same per-seat demographic projection used across the series: One Nation’s 2025 federal vote share by AEC class, spread across the state’s seats, raked to the poll, and run through each state’s preferential (and, for the upper houses, proportional) count.

Per-vote rates are CPI-indexed to each election’s financial year, and vote counts are scaled to each election’s projected electorate — the prior election’s formal vote grown by enrolment growth (about 1–2.2% a year, taken from each commission’s recent roll trend), on the assumption that formal-vote growth tracks enrolment growth. Figures are nominal, on a full-entitlement basis — the historic cap that limited funding to a party’s actual spend is treated as non-binding, since it sits far above the entitlement in every case — and counted from April 2026: recurring funding to March 2031, five years from the SA election, plus — counted with their elections — the per-vote payments of the two contests at the close: New South Wales’s 2031 campaign payment, paid a few weeks after, and the 2031 federal entitlement, paid in the months after polling day. Queensland’s Policy Development Payment depends on its winning a seat; it follows the Electoral Act 1992 (Qld) s241 vote-and-seat-ratio formula, which reproduces the roughly $120,000 a half-year One Nation drew on its 2020 result. That seat projection assumes the optional-preferential voting the Crisafulli government has pledged to restore for 2028 — not yet law, so Queensland still votes full-preferential — which makes the seat count, and the payment it unlocks, contingent on that change.

South Australia and New South Wales run staggered upper houses — eight-year terms, half the seats up each election — so earlier wins carry over: the SA party room keeps its 2026 Council seats alongside any won in 2030, and the 2027 NSW Council seats run to 2035, so a matching 2031 result seats a second tranche alongside them. Victoria’s Council is not staggered (all seats up every four years), so its projected 2030 party room simply matches the 2026 projection at the same poll.

All of these out-years figures already sit inside the overview’s national total — this page is a closer look at that back-half money, not an addition to it. These figures are point projections, not forecasts: each takes the poll at face value and shows what the funding rules would pay if the election reproduced it — no margin of error or probability is attached.

More in this series

One Nation: public funding

How much public money One Nation receives from each contest, March 2026 to mid-2031.